Model & methodology

Active model xp-v0.2.0 over 553 players. xp-v0.2.0 is unchanged here: transparent prior-informed component xP with variance-based ranges.

Provenance legend

OBSERVED

Official FPL data captured by scheduled ingestion: prices, ownership, transfer counters, status/news, results.

OBSERVED

CALCULATED

Deterministic arithmetic on observations: net-transfer velocity, ownership deltas, acceleration.

CALCULATED

MODELLED

Engine estimates: expected points/minutes, ranges, risk, price-pressure heuristic, team ratings. Never presented as observed facts.

MODELLED

APPROXIMATED

Manager state public data cannot establish exactly (bank timing, selling prices) - always labelled where used.

APPROXIMATED

Data pipeline

Six-hourly ingestion stores observations plus a versioned prediction run in Neon.
Half-hourly market poll stores compact official market snapshots (7-day window).
Page views read persisted runs only; no page load reruns the model.
Personal sections read small official entry endpoints, cached per TTL.
Entry 7181076 is the standing end-to-end verification account.

Known limitations

Bounds are variance-based ranges, not calibrated intervals: starters were covered ~72% historically versus an ~85% target; the validated x2 upper-tail widening (xp-v0.3-interval-calibration) is not yet adopted.
Risk summarizes availability and minutes uncertainty only.

Price pressure

Experimental pressure indicator from observed transfer velocity and ownership movement. Not the official FPL price-change threshold. Once several weeks of intraday snapshots accumulate, each real price change becomes a labelled event so future work can evaluate precision, recall, Brier score and calibration before any probability claim is ever shown.